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The US bear market has affected many companies, many in the financial sector. The average US consumer has seen their disposable income decreased substantially and they are unable to refinance their home to get some needed relief as the mortgage market has tightened. Inflation with respect to energy has really hurt the commuter as we have seen gas prices shoot through the roof and they have had no other option but to trade in their SUV and sqeeze their two kids and family dog into a Prius. All of this doesnt mean short everything, but I am seeing a change in the market that is somewhat confusing. C and MER came in with earnings and still had substantial write downs but not apocalyptic by any means. MSFT and GOOG didnt do as well as many thought but that was on the heals of IBM having another good quarter. The sell off in the Nasdaq today seems to be a little too much as I do not believe that things are as bad as many think. We are just starting to see the tapering off of oil prices and it is looking as a downward trend could continue for some time. With all of the commotion, many have forgotten some of the best companies that have consistantly outperformed the market. My holding in POT and MON are starting to look good from an earnings standpoint, but today I will be taking a position ahead of AAPL's earnings.





AAPL is not just a great company with one of the biggest fan clubs in the world, they just seem to do things that others deem impossible and they are the computers the world thinks are cool. The "cool" factor is something you can't buy or mimic, it is just something you have. I went to best buy last week to take a look at a new computer as mine is so slow now I cuss more than I type, but AAPL had a huge setup with tons of people looking at their laptops and desktops. It is obvious the HP's and Dell's of the world are just bowing before them. When speaking with the sales staff, they didnt even want to bother with the other companies and kept directing me towards the new Apple that with a little VM softwear could do everything, even let my dog out in the morning if I slept in. Is all the hype warranted? I believe so, and I am going to put my money where my mouth is as earnings on Monday will probably be spectacular.





When looking at AAPL, I am not dismissing the effect the Ipod touch and Iphone have had, but look at this as just the beginning and their halo effect on their computer sales. I own an Ipod Touch and currently hook it up through a wireless network that allows me to hear all of the baseball games over the internet while I knock down the grass with my tractor in my back field. I know it sounds like a little thing, but it keeps me busy on many an uneventful weekend afternoon. These little enjoyable things are not just a want, at least for me, but a need. I cannot do without this technology and since I have an Ipod I will probably buy an Apple as my next computer, to replace my existing Compaq (now you have an idea how old it is).





If you want to follow PC sales one first needs to follow Gartner as he is the guru of guru's with respect to this area. On July 16th it was reported that AAPL is now the third largest PC vendor in the US. Only 60000 units separate them from Acer, but that is a far cry from last year's numbers. The market share gains are phenomenal with respect to sales even though the percentage does not seem that large. AAPL now has 8.5% of the US market but when growth in this area is measured for the company sales are up 38% year over year. Market share is up 2.1% year over year with respect to the entire US market. To give an idea of how much Apple can grow Dell has four times the US shipments as AAPL currently has. Also, global shipments of PC's are up 16% year over year. The IDC has the numbers for Apple shipments lower than Gartner, but either way the numbers still look good. Robust growth in the sector was seen in the EMEA. There was some slowing in Asian markets, but most seen in Japan. The US has also slowed, but that was expected.





There was an estimated 2.37 million Macs shipped worldwide. Look for numbers to be substantially higher than the street expects as this stock has taken its breather. The 3G Iphone will also help sales, and I believe that many of the contractual situations will be lifted somewhat in order to get the product out to more consumers, increasing revenue. The main reason for being excited and buying this stock into earnings has more to do with performance. They have beaten estimates for so many quarters in a row it is hard to keep track. They will probably offer a conservative guidance, but look for something new over the horizon. The fact that Apple stores are empty with respect to Iphones, is a little worrisome, but it looks to give an investor an opportunity to buy. Look for net income to come in over $1 billion and for earnings to be in the $1.25 area. This stock is headed to $200.